Eli Lilly’s $100B incretin opportunity: Is more upside coming?

J.P. Morgan believes Eli Lilly & Co. is set to keep expanding in the booming obesity-drug market, citing its Zepbound and Mounjaro franchises as well as a pipeline of next-generation therapies that provide multiple routes to further upside.

The bank lifted its 2027 revenue projection for the drugmaker by 0.7% to $105.67 billion and increased its adjusted earnings-per-share estimate by 1.1% to $50.99. It reiterated an Overweight rating and a December 2026 price target of $1,400, compared with a share price of $1,160 on Sept. 1.

J.P. Morgan sees total revenue climbing from roughly $88 billion in 2026 to more than $105 billion in 2027 and then to $135 billion by 2030. It characterized those estimates as conservative, with adjusted earnings per share, excluding in-process research and development, potentially advancing from about $40 in 2026 to nearly $70 by 2030.

The largest contributor is expected to be Lilly’s incretin portfolio, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro and the oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo. J.P. Morgan forecasts combined incretin sales above $62 billion in 2026, $78 billion in 2027 and more than $100 billion in 2030, implying roughly 20% annualized growth through the rest of the decade.

The U.S. obesity market may benefit from expanded Medicare coverage and direct-to-consumer access, while overseas markets could provide another growth engine. J.P. Morgan expects Lilly’s products, particularly Zepbound, to capture a large share of new prescriptions as obesity treatment continues to broaden.

The bank also sees substantial longer-term potential in pipeline candidates retatrutide and eloralintide. Retatrutide, potentially reaching the market in late 2027, could serve a wide range of obese patients, while eloralintide may have applications in first-line treatment, patients who respond poorly to GLP-1 drugs and weight-maintenance therapy.

J.P. Morgan acknowledges that investors remain concerned about pricing pressure on GLP-1 drugs and the pace of Foundayo’s U.S. rollout. However, it argues that Lilly’s next-generation medicines could maintain a competitive edge by raising the efficacy and tolerability bar, while broader employer coverage could improve patient access as prices decline.

The brokerage’s financial model projects Lilly’s revenue growth of 35% in 2026 and 20.1% in 2027, with adjusted earnings per share rising by 50.7% and 39.7%, respectively. EBITDA margins are expected to expand from 48.9% in 2026 to 54.7% in 2027 as the company benefits from scale.

Key risks to J.P. Morgan’s bullish view include weaker-than-expected diabetes and obesity growth, intensifying competition, tougher U.S. pricing regulation, including pressure from the Inflation Reduction Act, and failures in Lilly’s drug pipeline.