Freeport-McMoRan shares surge as copper hits record $14,694/ton

Shares of Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), the largest US-listed copper producer, advanced sharply on Tuesday after three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange touched an intraday record of $14,694 per metric ton, eclipsing the previous all-time high of $14,527.50 set in January 2026.

According to Freeport’s own management sensitivity model, each 10-cent increase in the copper price adds approximately $390 million to annual EBITDA. That makes Tuesday’s record-setting session a material earnings event unfolding in real time.

FCX shares were trading up 7.2% at $77.99 as of 10:26 AM ET, bringing the year-to-date advance to 44%, a performance broadly aligned with copper-mining peers Southern Copper and Teck Resources, each up roughly 45% so far this year. LME copper itself was last up 1.1% on the day at $14,673 per ton.

The rally is being fueled by a convergence of structural and tactical pressures on supply. Copper flows bound for the US have accelerated ahead of possible tariff action, draining inventories from global warehouses and into American ports. Meanwhile, Chile, the world’s dominant copper producer, delivered its weakest second-quarter output in at least 19 years and has lowered its full-year production guidance for a second consecutive quarter, now projecting a 2.6% annual decline, according to the Economic Times. Morgan Stanley, which entered 2026 expecting mine supply to expand, now anticipates copper production remaining broadly flat or edging lower—a trajectory that would mark the first annual contraction in global copper mine supply since 2017.

“Supply will come, but the question is how quickly,” Anglo American Chief Operating Officer Ruben Fernandes said, as quoted by the Economic Times.

At the current trajectory, the significance of Freeport’s EBITDA sensitivity grows. Management projects EBITDA at $13 billion assuming $5 per pound copper, climbing to $20 billion at $7 per pound for 2027 and 2028. On Tuesday, LME copper was trading above $6.60 per pound, implying that FCX’s earnings profile sits comfortably above the $13 billion floor if those prices hold. Investors seeking a read on street expectations should keep in mind that these EBITDA figures come from the company’s own model and have not been independently verified against a second source.

Citigroup analyst Tom Mulqueen forecasts copper reaching $15,000 per ton by year-end, with an upside scenario of $17,000 if manufacturing revives or if demand from energy transition, data centers, or strategic stockpiling exceeds expectations. The broader mining complex is reacting in kind: TSX precious and base metals stocks dominated the top gainers list on Tuesday, according to Investing.com data, reflecting synchronized strength across copper and gold.

Two near-term catalysts could either extend or arrest the copper rally. The European Central Bank meets Thursday, September 10, and is widely expected to raise euro-zone interest rates by 25 basis points; the outcome will help shape global risk appetite and commodity-linked equity flows, including those into FCX. More consequential may be the US inflation reading due Friday, September 11. A hotter-than-expected print would sharpen expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, potentially pressuring copper and mining equities by strengthening the dollar and cooling growth sentiment. A benign reading, by contrast, would leave the macro runway clear for copper to push toward the $15,000 level that Citi’s Mulqueen projects by December.