Goldman sees Cybercab giving Tesla a cost advantage in robotaxis

Goldman Sachs analysts said Tesla’s Cybercab could hand the company a cost advantage in the autonomous-vehicle market, but its ability to scale robotaxi operations will likely hinge more on software performance than on manufacturing expenses.

According to the Goldman Sachs research note, Tesla held a Cybercab launch event in Austin on Sept. 3 and has already begun offering robotaxi rides in the vehicle. The company also stated that it had logged 1 million miles of driverless robotaxi operations and is now seeking operators interested in owning Cybercab fleets, managing hubs and infrastructure, or hosting robotaxi events.

Goldman noted that Tesla’s focus on a low-cost vehicle, underpinned by its unboxed manufacturing approach and camera-only sensor system, could improve the economics of its robotaxi operations. If Tesla reaches its targeted $20,000-$30,000 Cybercab cost at scale, the analysts estimated a possible $0.05-$0.30 per-mile cost advantage over autonomous-vehicle rivals whose upfront vehicle costs are $50,000-$100,000.

However, the analysts said the bigger question for investors is whether Tesla’s artificial-intelligence strategy will allow its autonomous-driving software to scale quickly and function across a wider geographic territory. A broader operating footprint would let Tesla generate more revenue and spread its vehicle cost base over more miles, meaning software could become a larger driver of robotaxi economics than the vehicle price itself.

Tesla’s recent safety data for its supervised Full Self-Driving system also showed lower rates of certain safety events. In North America, vehicles equipped with FSD Supervised on the company’s fourth-generation hardware recorded roughly 75%-85% fewer automatic emergency braking events and 40%-90% fewer minor and major collisions compared with Teslas not using FSD, according to the report.

In Europe, FSD Supervised vehicles recorded about 70%-95% fewer automatic emergency braking events in most cases, though Goldman cautioned that the European data was generated by Tesla-trained engineering operators and so might not be directly comparable with North American data. The report also said Tesla had received provisional FSD approval in the Netherlands and four other European Union countries.

Goldman estimated that Tesla’s fully driverless robotaxi operation experienced an accident, regardless of fault, every 50,000 to 70,000 miles, based on available NHTSA crash data through mid-July and Tesla disclosures for Austin, Dallas, and Houston. The analysts excluded data from before January, when Tesla began fully driverless rides.

The bank maintained a Neutral rating on Tesla with a 12-month price target of $360, compared with a closing price of $376.37 on Sept. 3. Goldman outlined an illustrative upside scenario of about $500 and a downside scenario of roughly $150.

The analysts identified slower electric-vehicle demand, increased competition, tariffs, delays to FSD and other products, and operational and margin pressures as key downside risks. Potential catalysts include faster EV adoption, earlier product launches, and a larger-than-expected contribution from AI products such as FSD, Optimus, and robotaxis.