KeyBanc warns Apple’s iPhone 18 launch may be a negative catalyst for shares

Investing.com -- Apple’s Sept. 9 iPhone launch event could turn into a negative catalyst for its shares, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets, as investor attention centers on pricing and how higher costs may affect demand and margins.

KeyBanc Capital Markets wrote in a research note that Apple has two broad options: it could raise prices across the board to counter gross-margin pressure, a move that risks reducing unit volumes and triggering “sticker shock,” or it could apply more targeted price increases, which would invite closer scrutiny of margins and raise expectations that additional hikes could follow.

KeyBanc kept its Underweight rating on Apple and its $250 price target, compared with the share price of $324.96 cited in the note.

KeyBanc predicts Apple will introduce three new iPhones at the event: the iPhone 18 Pro, the iPhone 18 Pro Max, and a first-generation foldable iPhone referred to as the Fold/Ultra. The firm also expects two new Apple Watch models, new AirPods, and additional clarity on the timing of iOS 27.

The iPhone 18 Pro is expected to retain a 6.3-inch display while adding an A20 Pro chip, a C2 modem, and a variable-aperture camera. The Pro Max is expected to maintain its 6.9-inch display and gain a larger battery, while the Fold/Ultra could come with a 5.5-inch display when closed and a 7.8-inch screen when opened.

KeyBanc forecasts total iPhone 18 builds of roughly 80 million units in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and first quarter of fiscal 2027, down from about 91 million units in the same period a year earlier. The brokerage attributes the expected drop largely to the absence of a base iPhone 18 model, with higher pricing and a richer product mix expected to partially offset weaker volumes.

The firm is modeling a $150 price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro, bringing it to $1,249; a $200 increase for the Pro Max, bringing it to $1,399; and a $2,199 price tag for the Fold/Ultra.

KeyBanc notes that Apple shares have historically tended to lose ground around iPhone announcements. Over the past five years, the stock has averaged a 0.72% decline on the announcement day and a 1.22% decline five trading days later.