Morgan Stanley names Scout24 top pick, cuts Vend on rising competition

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley has downgraded Vend Marketplaces ASA to “equal-weight” from “overweight” and reduced its price target to 275 Norwegian crowns from 320 crowns. The move reflects increased execution and competitive risks spanning the company’s Mobility, Jobs, and Recommerce operations.

The broker additionally designated Scout24 as its new Top Pick in European classifieds. It noted that the German property portal’s shares have fallen roughly 30% over the past 12 months even as consensus earnings-per-share estimates for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 climbed 4% and 10%, respectively, year-to-date, with artificial intelligence already aiding monetization through Propstack and ImmoPunkte.

For Vend, Morgan Stanley pointed to execution problems in Sweden and Denmark that have heightened friction with users and dealers while reducing monetization visibility in the Mobility segment.

At Blocket, a platform migration in November 2025 disrupted private listings and dampened user satisfaction. A May price increase meanwhile prompted dealers to trim discretionary spending, holding professional average revenue per account growth to just 3% even though vehicle volumes rose 5%.

In Jobs, the bank observed that artificial intelligence is expanding rapidly beyond search and matching into the broader recruitment workflow, amplifying both structural risk and the investment required to remain competitive.

Within Recommerce, Vinted is making inroads in Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, clouding the outlook for growth, take rates, and profitability outside Norway.

Morgan Stanley trimmed its fiscal 2027 and 2028 revenue projections for Vend by 0% and 1%, respectively, citing softer Recommerce growth from Vinted competition, a more moderate Mobility recovery, and reduced Jobs growth, which is now modeled toward the low end of management’s 5% to 10% medium-term range.

The broker lowered its fiscal 2027/2028 EBITDA estimates by 3% and 4%, respectively, reflecting both the reduced revenue base and weaker margins in Jobs and Recommerce. That flowed through to a 3% to 4% cut in earnings-per-share estimates for the same periods.

Morgan Stanley also revised down its bull and bear cases for Vend to 370 crowns and 175 crowns, from 390 crowns and 200 crowns, respectively, citing the weaker earnings trajectory.

For Scout24, Morgan Stanley set a price target of €114, implying about 50% upside, based on roughly 1 times price/earnings-to-growth and about 11 times fiscal 2027 enterprise value/EBITDA. That is set against forecasts of about 11% revenue compound annual growth, 14% operating EBITDA compound annual growth, and 20% earnings-per-share compound annual growth from fiscal 2026 through 2028.

The broker said Propstack AI customers nearly doubled during the first half, while ImmoPunkte monthly revenue increased 53% year-over-year in June. Propstack AI users now generate about €340 in average revenue per user versus around €220 for non-AI users. Its bull case for Scout24 is €144 and its bear case is €60.