Scotiabank favors Uber and DoorDash over Lyft as it begins ride-hailing coverage

In a Wednesday note, Scotiabank launched coverage of the ride-hailing and on-demand delivery sector, showing a clear preference for scaled leaders Uber and DoorDash over Lyft.

Analyst Nat Schindler initiated Uber and DoorDash with Sector Outperform ratings and price targets of $100 and $275, respectively, while assigning Lyft a Sector Perform rating and a $17 price target.

Schindler described the underlying industries as large and expanding, driven by a long-term shift toward convenience and away from private car ownership, and noted that they have matured into rational, consolidated structures that support healthy pricing and disciplined capital allocation.

In his view, subscription programs—rather than logistics or pricing—are what separate the winning companies from the rest.

He argued that subscription lock-in, not logistics or pricing, explains why the leaders are pulling away, pointing to Uber One and DashPass as tools that turn occasional users into habitual ones, lower churn, and lift margins alongside high-margin advertising.

On autonomous vehicles, the analyst reframed the threat as a capital-allocation issue rather than a technology problem.

Schindler wrote that the core debate is not whether autonomous vehicles work, but whether a fixed asset base can meet variable demand, explaining that an owned fleet cannot flex with demand the way a marketplace can; he noted that Uber secures AV supply through partnerships without funding the fleet itself.

He characterized Lyft as a legitimate turnaround story but structurally subscale, observing that the question is no longer whether Lyft can survive but whether it can achieve the scale needed to compete effectively.

The analyst also flagged a shared risk across all three companies: their heavy exposure to affluent consumers could make them vulnerable to a downturn concentrated in higher-income professional roles, including one driven by AI-related disruption.

Scotiabank singled out Amazon as the most credible long-term challenger in the space, citing its Zoox robotaxi unit and its established retail base.